Weather for the market.
How hard prices may swing, and how many dollars sit on chain.
No third-party index in the middle. One-minute prices from our own history, stablecoin supply read straight from each stablecoin's own contract, and the method written down where you can check it. It says how big a move may be, never which way.
From the Barometer's public reading, 17:29 UTC.
Expected Volatility, Bitcoin
- Expected, next 30 days
- 41.6%
- Realised, last 30 days
- 32.1%
% a year
Higher than 15% of the last year's readings
Read 17:29 UTC
A size of move, never a direction. Market information, not advice.
Expected minus realised
The gap is the story.
Above zero the market is braced for more than it has had. Below, it is calmer than it fears.
+9.5
Braced
points between the two readings above, this minute
Expected Volatility is what our own model, fitted on past prices, says the next 30 days may hold. Realised volatility is what the last 30 days actually did. Neither is a forecast of price.
When the first sits well above the second, the market's recent calm is not being trusted. When it sits below, the recent storm is expected to blow out.
Big gaps close, one way or the other. The Barometer shows you the gap; it does not tell you which way it closes, because nobody honestly can.
Dollar stablecoins
The stablecoin tide.
How many dollar tokens sit on chain, and how many were issued or redeemed today.
Stablecoins are the cash of crypto. When new ones are minted, dollars are arriving on chain; when they are burned, dollars are leaving.
The Barometer reads supply from each stablecoin's own contract, and the mints and burns from the contracts' own events, every hour: USDT on Ethereum and Tron, USDC on Ethereum, and more as each is wired.
It also counts every transfer of 10 million dollars or more. Raw addresses, no guessing about who owns which address.
- Supply on chain
- $249.4B
- Net issued, last 24 hours
- Net issuance is still being measured
Issued and redeemed are both just facts. Neither colour on the Barometer means good or bad.
The method
From raw data to a reading.
The same four steps every minute, with the method's version stamped on every number.
Collect
One-minute prices from our own market history, and supply from each stablecoin's own contract.
Calculate
Our own published method for Expected Volatility, the same way every minute, refitted each hour.
Publish
A new reading every minute. A reading still measuring carries no number, never a zero.
Use it
On the Barometer site today, and in your own tools through the developer portal when it opens.
Every value carries the time it was measured. If a series is still filling, the Barometer says 'measuring' and shows nothing in its place.
Kestrel's trading engines are on paper. The Barometer feeds what they see; it does not place a single order.
Next door
The mood, next door.
Our Mood index reads the news; the Barometer measures the market. Different instruments.
Mood index
Mood 44
Fear. A reading of news tone, not a signal.
706 items read today
The last day, hour by hour
The Mood index is ours: the tone of what Kestrel's news reader read, how broad the good and bad news is, how calm the day has been, and Bitcoin's own move when we have it.
It never opens a trade. A mood is a temperature, not an instruction, and the same number is on the home page and the Kestrel pages.
The Barometer feed's own mood blends several families of measures, and credits each source it shows, among them the Crypto Fear and Greed Index by alternative.me.
For builders
One key, both feeds.
An API for the Barometer is on its way through the Atheron developer portal.
The same readings, by the minute, with their history and their method version, beside the Kestrel feeds. Access is not open yet, and we will not pretend otherwise.
Until then, the Barometer site is free to read in any browser.
Check the weather first.
Free to read, every minute, with the method on the table. It measures. It never tells you what to trade.
Market information, not advice. Atheron trades on paper until launch, and you can lose money trading.